Te comprendo, joven. Has sabido que se han anunciado elecciones presidenciales en Afganistán y no sabes qué pensar. No problemo. Mi amigo Ahmad Majidyar, con fecha 29 de enero, ha preparado un Outlook para American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Reasarch (AEI) donde tus dudas seguro que serán satisfechas:

Afghanistan will be a pressing item on the Obama administration’s foreign policy agenda. Insurgent activity is at its worst since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, and the country risks spiraling into instability. President Hamid Karzai’s government is losing popularity and appears unable to contain the growing crisis. Against this backdrop, the Obama administration may be tempted to support postponing the presidential election. This would be a mistake. Holding elections is crucial to boosting Afghanistan’s confidence and cementing the country’s fragile democratic transformation.

Hamid Karzai has been a solid partner for Washington, but in the past two years his rule has faltered. The Afghan government presently controls only 30 percent of the country’s territory, and humanitarian organizations deem almost half of the country too dangerous for aid workers. Two thousand eight was the deadliest year for coalition troops since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. More than 1,445 civilians lost their lives in the first eight months due to Taliban action, coalition crossfire, and terrorist bombings. For Afghanistan’s leader to acquire the popular legitimacy necessary to lead the multiethnic country effectively, holding a timely presidential election will be essential.

In October 2004, Karzai was elected to a five-year term in the first direct vote for the presidency in Afghanistan’s history. This year’s election will demonstrate the Afghans’ desire to reject the extremists opposing the current democratic process in the country. If an election does not occur by April 22, 2009, Afghanistan’s constitution states that a loya jirga (grand assembly) must be convened. This would wreak havoc on Afghanistan’s already fragile political and social fabric. The government would lose legitimacy and risk an ensuing constitutional crisis. For the Afghan elections to succeed, it is imperative that the Obama administration engage the issue immediately.

Afghanistan’s Presidential Election (pdf, 9 páginas a doble columna, 179 K, con multitud de notas).